Expiratory Aerosol pH: The Overlooked Driver of Airborne Virus Inactivation.

Respiratory viruses, including influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2, are transmitted by the airborne route. Air filtration and ventilation mechanically reduce the concentration of airborne viruses and are necessary tools for disease mitigation. However, they ignore the potential impact of the chemical environment surrounding aerosolized viruses, which determines the aerosol pH. Atmospheric aerosol gravitates toward acidic pH, and enveloped viruses are prone to inactivation at strong acidity levels. Yet, the acidity of expiratory aerosol particles and its effect on airborne virus persistence have not been examined. Here, we combine pH-dependent inactivation rates of influenza A virus (IAV) and SARS-CoV-2 with microphysical properties of respiratory fluids using a biophysical aerosol model. We find that particles exhaled into indoor air (with relative humidity ≥ 50%) become mildly acidic (pH ∼ 4), rapidly inactivating IAV within minutes, whereas SARS-CoV-2 requires days. If indoor air is enriched with nonhazardous levels of nitric acid, aerosol pH drops by up to 2 units, decreasing 99%-inactivation times for both viruses in small aerosol particles to below 30 s. Conversely, unintentional removal of volatile acids from indoor air may elevate pH and prolong airborne virus persistence. The overlooked role of aerosol acidity has profound implications for virus transmission and mitigation strategies.

Early detection and surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants in wastewater using COJAC.

The continuing emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants of interest emphasizes the need for early detection and epidemiological surveillance of novel variants. We used genomic sequencing of 122 wastewater samples from three locations in Switzerland to monitor the local spread of B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1 (Gamma) variants of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level. We devised a bioinformatics method named COJAC (Co-Occurrence adJusted Analysis and Calling) that uses read pairs carrying multiple variant-specific signature mutations as a robust indicator of low-frequency variants. Application of COJAC revealed that a local outbreak of the Alpha variant in two Swiss cities was observable in wastewater up to 13 d before being first reported in clinical samples. We further confirmed the ability of COJAC to detect emerging variants early for the Delta variant by analysing an additional 1,339 wastewater samples. While sequencing data of single wastewater samples provide limited precision for the quantification of relative prevalence of a variant, we show that replicate and close-meshed longitudinal sequencing allow for robust estimation not only of the local prevalence but also of the transmission fitness advantage of any variant. We conclude that genomic sequencing and our computational analysis can provide population-level estimates of prevalence and fitness of emerging variants from wastewater samples earlier and on the basis of substantially fewer samples than from clinical samples. Our framework is being routinely used in large national projects in Switzerland and the UK.

Wastewater Reveals the Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) during the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an effective tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we add a spatial component to WBE and use it to investigate SARS-CoV-2 spread in the canton of Ticino during the onset of the pandemic in Switzerland (end of February 2020 to beginning of March 2020). Ticino is located at the border to Northern Italy, where a large COVID-19 outbreak occurred in February 2020. Not surprisingly, Ticino was the site of the first clinically confirmed COVID-19 case in Switzerland. We retrospectively analyzed daily influent samples from nine wastewater treatment plants in Ticino that jointly cover an area of 20 km × 60 km and 351,000 people (>99% of the population). Our result is a fine-grained view of the spatiotemporal evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in this canton. The wastewater analysis revealed that by February 29, 2020, SARS-CoV-2 had already spread to all catchments. At the same time, only four individual cases had been clinically confirmed across the region served by the treatment plants investigated. Our results demonstrate that WBE could serve as a versatile tool to monitor the introduction and spread of an infectious agent on a regional scale. To fully exploit its utility, WBE should be implemented in real time and become an integral part of future disease surveillance efforts.

Wastewater-Based Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: The effective reproductive number, Re, is a critical indicator to monitor disease dynamics, inform regional and national policies, and estimate the effectiveness of interventions. It describes the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious person through time. To date, Re estimates are based on clinical data such as observed cases, hospitalizations, and/or deaths. These estimates are temporarily biased when clinical testing or reporting strategies change. OBJECTIVES: We show that the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in wastewater can be used to estimate Re in near real time, independent of clinical data and without the associated biases. METHODS: We collected longitudinal measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater in Zurich, Switzerland, and San Jose, California, USA. We combined this data with information on the temporal dynamics of shedding (the shedding load distribution) to estimate a time series proportional to the daily COVID-19 infection incidence. We estimated a wastewater-based Re from this incidence. RESULTS: The method to estimate Re from wastewater worked robustly on data from two different countries and two wastewater matrices. The resulting estimates were as similar to the Re estimates from case report data as Re estimates based on observed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are among each other. We further provide details on the effect of sampling frequency and the shedding load distribution on the ability to infer Re. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first time Re has been estimated from wastewater. This method provides a low-cost, rapid, and independent way to inform SARS-CoV-2 monitoring during the ongoing pandemic and is applicable to future wastewater-based epidemiology targeting other pathogens. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10050.

Inferring transmission fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern from wastewater samples using digital PCR, Switzerland, December 2020 through March 2021.

BackgroundThroughout the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants of concern (VOCs) have repeatedly and independently arisen. VOCs are characterised by increased transmissibility, increased virulence or reduced neutralisation by antibodies obtained from prior infection or vaccination. Tracking the introduction and transmission of VOCs relies on sequencing, typically whole genome sequencing of clinical samples. Wastewater surveillance is increasingly used to track the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants through sequencing approaches.AimHere, we adapt and apply a rapid, high-throughput method for detection and quantification of the relative frequency of two deletions characteristic of the Alpha, Beta, and Gamma VOCs in wastewater.MethodsWe developed drop-off RT-dPCR assays and an associated statistical approach implemented in the R package WWdPCR to analyse temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 signature mutations (spike Δ69-70 and ORF1a Δ3675-3677) in wastewater and quantify transmission fitness advantage of the Alpha VOC.ResultsBased on analysis of Zurich wastewater samples, the estimated transmission fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha based on the spike Δ69-70 was 0.34 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.30-0.39) and based on ORF1a Δ3675-3677 was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49-0.57), aligning with the transmission fitness advantage of Alpha estimated by clinical sample sequencing in the surrounding canton of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.61).ConclusionDigital PCR assays targeting signature mutations in wastewater offer near real-time monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs and potentially earlier detection and inference on transmission fitness advantage than clinical sequencing.

Wastewater monitoring outperforms case numbers as a tool to track COVID-19 incidence dynamics when test positivity rates are high.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to coincide with, or anticipate, confirmed COVID-19 case numbers. During periods with high test positivity rates, however, case numbers may be underreported, whereas wastewater does not suffer from this limitation. Here we investigated how the dynamics of new COVID-19 infections estimated based on wastewater monitoring or confirmed cases compare to true COVID-19 incidence dynamics. We focused on the first pandemic wave in Switzerland (February to April, 2020), when test positivity ranged up to 26%. SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads were determined 2-4 times per week in three Swiss wastewater treatment plants (Lugano, Lausanne and Zurich). Wastewater and case data were combined with a shedding load distribution and an infection-to-case confirmation delay distribution, respectively, to estimate infection incidence dynamics. Finally, the estimates were compared to reference incidence dynamics determined by a validated compartmental model. Incidence dynamics estimated based on wastewater data were found to better track the timing and shape of the reference infection peak compared to estimates based on confirmed cases. In contrast, case confirmations provided a better estimate of the subsequent decline in infections. Under a regime of high-test positivity rates, WBE thus provides critical information that is complementary to clinical data to monitor the pandemic trajectory.